As each day goes by, we hear more and more about the chance of a contested convention. The fact is that there will be a contested convention. As much as Donald Trump likes to say there won’t be, he is yet again just plain wrong. According to The Washington Post, Trump would need to win 61 percent of the remaining delegates in order for him to win the nomination outright. That report also said there’s a 50 percent chance he will get those remaining delegates. And as long as Trump keeps talking he’s going to win fewer and fewer delegates.
So, there we have it: there is a strong chance of a contested convention. Now, in all of the other past conventions the rules state that anyone can be nominated to become the president. So, someone who was not running for president before could walk out of the convention as the party’s nominee. There has been talk this year of Paul Ryan being nominated at the convention in Cleveland, even though he has denied many times that he does not want the job (just like he didn’t want the House Speaker job).
This is why Ohio governor John Kasich would have been better off not running for President at all. The two candidates at the convention would have been Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, which is like picking between a four-hour chemistry lab or a four hour biology lab. No matter what you pick, you’re going to have a bad time. So, the Republican Party would have been scrambling to find a candidate that was a true conservative who could win in November. All they would have had to do was look a few miles south in Columbus to find Kasich.
Somehow in this election cycle, experience and the fact that Kasich is even running is a hindrance to his chances of becoming the Republican nominee, even though he has everything Republican voters want. He’s balanced budgets, he’s pro-life, he’s got a lot of experience in foreign affairs and, believe it or not, he’s not an establishment guy. He has been working against the establishment his whole career in government. No one is giving him the time of day because he doesn’t say crazy things to get his name in the news and because he’s not in the news his poll numbers are down.
I think that if he just stayed out of the whole nominating process until the convention, it would have been easier to cast him as an anti-establishment guy with a background that proves he can actually do things beyond shutting down the government. If his name was brought up only for a few days at the convention, people would have been all in for John Kasich. The only poll they would have looked at was his approval rating in Ohio which is through the roof.
Unfortunately for Kasich, he has been cemented into the establishment lane. Apparently, having experience and actually getting things done means you are an establishment person. Of course, Kasich had no idea this election cycle would be so insane, so we can only wish and dream of the day when Kasich decided to stay in Ohio and then suddenly get a call saying you’ve been nominated to run for president and save the Republican Party.