Time to start paying attention

January 28th, 2016


After months and months of putting off paying attention to the presidential race, the time has come to start paying attention. The Iowa caucuses are next Tuesday, and the New Hampshire primary is the next Tuesday. These are the first time real people will go to the polls and caucus centers to voice their opinion and execute their constitutional right to vote.


So, why do these elections matter to people in Ohio (or whatever state you are registered to vote in)? We’ll see if Donald Trump has just crazy fans that go to his rallies and go nuts, or if he has people behind him that will actually go vote and caucus for him. If Trump does not have people behind him who will go vote, then that would change the entire Republican race. It would open it up in all of the primary states after Iowa, including Ohio (or whatever state you are registered to vote in).


New Hampshire will also be an interesting state because all of the so-called “establishment” candidates, which include Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich and Chris Christie, hope to shine in this state so that voters will coalesce around just one of them. However, if you continue to have all four of those candidates in the race then Trump and Cruz will be the only two Republican candidates to realistically win the nomination.


To prove that theory, let’s tally up all of the averages of those four candidates according to averages of New Hampshire polls. If you add up all of their averages, it equals 38 percent. Donald Trump is polling at an average of 32 percent. That means if three of those four men dropout and voters can rally around one of those candidates in future primaries, then the “establishment” voters and candidates have a real shot of winning the nomination. None of them are going to drop out before the New Hampshire Primary, but if three of them do after that race then the “establishment” candidate will have a chance to win in future primary states including Ohio (or whatever state you are registered to vote in).


Iowa and New Hampshire are not going the way most people thought they would for the Democratic race. People thought Hillary Clinton would walk away with the nomination and winning Iowa and New Hampshire would not be a problem. Then, Bernie Sanders came along and turned the Clinton campaign upside down. Sanders and Clinton are neck and neck in Iowa. Each new poll that comes out has a different person on the top. And in New Hampshire, Sanders is leading by an average of 14.6 percent according to averages. If Sanders wins both of these states, then that opens up a chance for Sanders to win the nomination by winning other states, including Ohio (or whatever state you are registered to vote in).


As much as the general public does not want to pay attention to the harsh rhetoric between all of the presidential candidates in the 2016 election, it is time to start paying attention. These states matter to all of the future states because they shape the future of the election. It is every citizen’s responsibility to pay attention and vote in their states’ primary. That also assumes you are all registered to vote, which I know as good American citizens, you all are.